Category Archives: precious metal market

Gold prices dip on strong dollar, equities rebound | Reuters

26 Friday Oct 2018

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(Reuters) – Gold prices fell on Thursday on a strong dollar and a rebound of stocks following a multi-day sell-off globally, taking steam out of bullion’s momentum.

Prices had risen to $1,239.22 earlier, near a more than three-month high of $1,239.68 hit on Tuesday as the stock market sell-off spurred interest in gold, considered a safer investment.

U.S. gold futures GCcv1 settled up $1.3, or 0.11 percent, at $1,232.40

“With equities being higher today, gold is unable to sustain a rally,” said Bob Haberkorn, senior market strategist at RJO Futures, adding that investors looking for safety are opting for Treasuries instead. [US/]

“Normally you would see gold trading significantly higher with this volatility, concerns in equity markets and global economic slowdown. But the fact that the U.S. Federal Reserve is hawkish, gold is having a hard time sustaining any rallies.”

The government said earlier that the number of Americans receiving unemployment benefits fell to more than a 45-year low, a sign to tight labour market conditions. That will likely keep the U.S. central bank on course to raise interest rates again in December. [nUSNPLEEMN]

Prospects of higher U.S. interest rates are negative for dollar-priced gold as they raise the opportunity cost of holding the bullion.

“The options expiry on Thursday is also dampening volatility in gold as between $1,225 and $1,230. There were about 1.5 million ounces of options that were open, allowing people to play around the range,” said Tai Wong, head of precious and base metals trading at BMO.

via Gold prices dip on strong dollar, equities rebound | Reuters

Short Sellers Beware: Gold “Must Go Higher” – Edelson Institute | Kitco News

09 Tuesday Oct 2018

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The cost of acquisitions has now fallen below the cost of exploration for major miners, and gold prices could benefit from a dwindling resource supply, this according to a recent report from the Edelson Institute.

Sean Brodrick of the Edelson Institute said that if gold prices don’t advance higher from here, many miners are likely to go out of business.

“If companies go out of business, and the only ‘new’ gold ounces come through acquisitions, that means gold supply will go down. And as surely as dawn follows night, prices will go up,” Brodrick said.

His comments come as Barrick Gold recently announced a merger with Randgold, forming the world’s undisputed largest gold miner.

According to the report, the cost of finding gold through exploration has climbed eight-fold since 2007, and gold miners are using up the resources in the ground.

Read more via Short Sellers Beware: Gold “Must Go Higher” – Edelson Institute | Kitco News

PRECIOUS-Gold steady as robust U.S. economy outlook stems safe-haven buying | Reuters

05 Friday Oct 2018

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* SPDR Gold holdings down 4.5 million ounces since April

* U.S. 10-year Treasury yields highest since 2011

* Dollar near 11-month highs against Japanese yen (Recasts with prices paring gains, adds comments)

By Swati Verma

BENGALURU, Oct 4 (Reuters) – Gold steadied on Thursday as positive U.S. economic data and prospects of tighter monetary policy offset limited gains from safe haven buying.

Spot gold was up 0.1 percent at $1,197.87 an ounce by 2:14 p.m. EDT (1814 GMT). U.S. gold futures settled down $1.30, or 0.11 percent, at $1,201.60.

Read more via PRECIOUS-Gold steady as robust U.S. economy outlook stems safe-haven buying | Reuters

Gold set for longest monthly losing streak in 2 decades

28 Friday Sep 2018

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Gold hit a fresh six-week low on Friday as the dollar firmed after upbeat U.S. economic data supported the Federal Reserve’s resolve for steady interest rate hikes, putting the metal on track for its longest monthly losing streak since January 1997.

Gold was down about 1.6 percent in September, its sixth straight monthly loss.

Spot gold rose 0.9 percent to $1,192.53 an ounce. The metal touched its lowest since Aug. 17 at $1,180.34 an ounce earlier in the session, dipping further from a six-week low of $1,181.61 hit on Thursday.

U.S. gold futures rose 0.7 percent at $1,196.10 an ounce.

The dollar gained against its peers on Friday as data showed U.S. economic growth accelerated in the second quarter at its fastest pace in nearly four years. Another report showed durable goods rose 4.5 percent in August, rebounding from a revised 1.2 percent drop the month before.

The short-term outlook is bearish for gold as the dollar may see some upside due to an ongoing trade war between China and the U.S. and the Federal Reserve interest rate hike outlook, according to Argonaut Securities analyst Helen Lau.

The Fed raised interest rates on Wednesday and said it planned four more increases by the end of 2019 and another in 2020.

“Robust U.S. economic fundamentals despite an escalation in trade tariffs have done little to lift demand for the non-interest bearing asset,” said Benjamin Lu, commodities analyst at Phillip Futures.

“The outlook for gold prices in the current term remains dim as such in lieu of rising rates and yields amidst buoyant U.S. economic conditions.”

Gold is down more than 13 percent from an April high, largely because of the stronger dollar, which has been boosted by a vibrant U.S. economy and fears of a global trade war. Investors have bought the greenback instead of gold as a safe investment.

Meanwhile, President Donald Trump’s accusation of Chinese meddling in the upcoming U.S. elections marks a new phase in an escalating pressure campaign against Beijing that Washington is pursuing on multiple fronts, senior U.S. officials said on Thursday.

“The trade war continues to favour the U.S. dollar and this will generally dampen gold’s upside,” said Nicholas Frappell, global general manager, ABC Bullion, Australia.

“Large speculative shorts may help cushion weakness as punters keep an eye on levels to close out and take money off the table,” he said.

Among other metals, palladium touched a fresh eight-month high at $1,088.97 an ounce. Silver rose 3.4 percent to $14.68 an ounce and platinum was up 0.7 percent to $815.24.

via Gold set for longest monthly losing streak in 2 decades

Gold prices edge higher as dollar finds little traction ahead of Wednesday’s Fed decision – MarketWatch

27 Thursday Sep 2018

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Gold futures eked out back-to-back gains Tuesday as the dollar index softened ahead of the Federal Reserve decision, which could yield a third rate increase of the year—a negative development for gold because it can bolster the dollar.

December gold GCZ8, -0.91%  rose 70 cents, or less than 0.1%, to settle at $1,205.10 an ounce, gaining as the dollar index DXY, +0.54%  traded little changed at 94.155.

The dollar and gold, which is chiefly priced in the U.S. currency, tend to move inversely. Gold prices based on the most-active contracts have declined by 8% so far in 2018 while the dollar index is up about 2.2%.

Read more via Gold prices edge higher as dollar finds little traction ahead of Wednesday’s Fed decision – MarketWatch

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As Twitter, FB, Google Get Crushed, Is Precious Metals Turn for Real?

14 Friday Sep 2018

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Silver

Risk is still to the downside and for those looking to go long based on days like Tuesday, it may be best to be in and out of positions quickly because it is not an environment to expect a sustained rally. The only rally that may be coming is in the precious metals.

Goldbugs, I feel your pain. Every rally since 2011 has failed. There were major rally attempts in 2016 and 17, both failed. Gold has been in a tight range of roughly 350 points since July 2013.

It’s a long time and starting to remind many people of the 1990s when it stayed in a tight range for three years until it came to its final bottom. They more than made up for it for about 10 years.

Here’s the good news. For all the heartbreak, the low has been holding since 2015 and they made a higher low in 2016. If the low right now were to hold, it would be another higher low.

Why are we talking about precious metals? There is an incredible vibration on the GoldMoney (XAU) mining stocks at 138 weeks off the January 2016 bottom at 38.37. It’s always amazing when this stuff works, so there are a lot of amazing conditions in the market. But its even more amazing when it starts to work in a large time frame.

via As Twitter, FB, Google Get Crushed, Is Precious Metals Turn for Real?

PRECIOUS-Gold prices slip as trade, emerging market worries lift dollar |

04 Tuesday Sep 2018

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PRECIOUS-Gold prices slip as trade, emerging market worries lift dollar

Reuters
Reuters Tuesday September 04, 2018 12:16 AM

Kitco News

* Gold may fall to $1,190/oz -technicals
* Palladium hovers near 11-week highs hit on Monday (Recasts, adds comment) By Sethuraman N R BENGALURU, Sept 4 (Reuters) – Gold prices inched down on Tuesday as the dollar hit a one-week high on the back of intensifying global trade tensions and economic worries in emerging markets.
Gold prices are down about 8 percent this year amid rising U.S. interest rates, trade disputes and the Turkish currency crisis, with investors parking their money in the dollar which is being viewed as a safe-haven asset. Spot gold was down 0.1 percent at $1,199.20 an ounce at 0347 GMT, while U.S. gold futures had dropped 0.1 percent to $1,205 an ounce. “The emerging market economic crisis is making currencies very weak and benefiting the dollar, which continues to pressure gold,” said Peter Fung, head of dealing at Wing Fung Precious Metals in Hong Kong. The dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, was up 0.1 percent at 95.182.
A firmer U.S. dollar makes gold more expensive for holders of other currencies, with safe-haven demand for gold this year overshadowed by the metal’s relationship with the greenback. “Gold should track the dollar’s movement very closely and interest rate expectations too are weighing on the metal,” Fung said. Markets are closely watching U.S. economic data, including a manufacturing survey on Tuesday and an employment report on Friday, which could influence gold’s moves as investors look for clues on the pace of U.S. interest rate increases. Meanwhile, worries over an escalation in trade conflicts between the United States and other countries have kept participants in broader markets on edge. “With all the noise building around the trade dispute, along with unsettling economic prospects for Turkey and Argentina that will likely drag on more emerging market economies … gold should be in demand,” said Stephen Innes, Asia-Pacific trading head at OANDA.
After a 16-percent slide in the peso last week, Argentine President Mauricio Macri on Monday announced new taxes and steep cuts to spending in an “emergency” bid to balance next year’s budget. Meanwhile, Turkey’s central bank signalled on Monday it would take steps to combat “significant risks” to price stability, comments seen as hinting at interest rate hikes. Spot gold may fall to $1,190 per ounce, as suggested by its wave pattern and a projection analysis, according to Reuters technical analyst Wang Tao. Spot silver dropped 0.2 percent to $14.43 on Tuesday, after falling to an over two-week low at $14.37 on Monday. Platinum was up 0.4 percent at $786.70, while palladium was down 0.1 percent at $977.50, after hitting an 11-week high of $985.50 on Monday. (Reporting by Nallur Sethuraman in Bengaluru Editing by Richard Pullin and Joseph Radford)

 

via PRECIOUS-Gold prices slip as trade, emerging market worries lift dollar |

Gold Prices Push Into Positive Territory As U.S. Core PCE Hits 2% | Kitco News

31 Friday Aug 2018

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landis refining, dental industry, scrap metal, purchase gold, purchase dental scrapsKitco – Gold prices have pushed into positive territory after inflation pressures have officially hit the Federal Reserve’s target.

Thursday, U.S. Department of Commerce said that its Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Index, increased also increased 0.2% in July, in line with expectations. Annually, core inflation, which is the Fed’s preferred inflation measure increased a tick higher to 2%, up from June’s reading of 1.9%.

This is the first time inflation has hit 2% since 2012.

headline inflation, increased 0.1% last month, in line with expectations. For the year, inflation pressures increased 2.3%.

Gold prices were in negative territory ahead of the data and has pushed into the green in initial reaction. December gold futures last traded at $1,211.90 an ounce, up 0.03% on the day.

Read more via Gold Prices Push Into Positive Territory As U.S. Core PCE Hits 2% | Kitco News

Gold Bears Not Letting Up; No Low In Sight As Prices Remain Below $1,200 | Kitco News

22 Wednesday Aug 2018

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(Kitco News) – Bearish speculative investors continue to hold the gold market in a death grip and are in complete control of the price action, according to the latest trade data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

While analysts continue to wait for the ever-elusive short squeeze to breathe new life in the yellow metal, the market’s speculative short side continues to expand hitting new historical record on a weekly basis. Net speculative short positions have increased for seven consecutive weeks.

“Speculative financial investors remain the primary factor weighing on the gold price. In the last reporting week alone, they sold 53.5 tons of gold via the futures market,” said analysts from Commerzbank. “Selling since the end of June now totals almost 260 tons – equivalent to nearly a month’s worth of global gold mining production.”

The CFTC’s disaggregated Commitments of Traders report, for the week ending Aug. 14, showed money managers decreased their speculative gross long positions in Comex gold futures by 1,046 contracts to 104,803. At the same time, short bets rose by 16,162 contracts to 188,127.

Gold’s net-short positioning currently stands at 83,324contracts, a 26% increase from the previous week. During the survey period, gold prices continued to test critical support at $1,200 an ounce.

Read more via Gold Bears Not Letting Up; No Low In Sight As Prices Remain Below $1,200 | Kitco News

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Metals feel the heat of Turkey crisis, US-China trade war – Livemint

21 Tuesday Aug 2018

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gold

Metals are bearing the brunt of global risks, which only seem to be mounting every month. August saw the US ratchet up trade tensions with Turkey, setting off a rout in emerging market currencies as investors took refuge in the dollar. Earlier, trade tensions between the US and China and economic sanctions on Russian entities roiled metal markets.

One could argue that the events triggering these falls are external to the industry and once they calm down, prices will regain lost ground. While that may be true, the tensions show no signs of calming down. Meanwhile, the fall in prices will hurt producers, who will now earn less than what they did a quarter ago.

Lower earnings will see investors slash their profit expectations, in turn affecting valuations. A bigger fear is that these tensions will slow global economic growth, causing lasting damage.

Those studying the economic effects may have their eyes on Dr Copper and whether it has got it right this time. The metal, nicknamed so for its apparent ability to predict economic conditions, has gone below $6,000 a tonne on London Metal Exchange and is down by 17.6% so far in 2018.

Copper also had some bad news of its own to report. The workers’ union at the world’s largest copper mine, Escondida, Chile, approved the terms of a new wage contract, last week. The possibility of a strike at the mine was one of the hopes that copper prices were holding on to, which has been dashed now.

If that settlement poses a supply risk, the market fears a demand risk as well. Fears that the Chinese economy may slow down still linger. Industrial output rose by 6% in July compared to the expected 6.3%, said a Reuters report. Fixed asset investment grew slower than expected at 5.5% in January-July compared to expectations of 6%.

China’s economic health is vital for commodities. In 2018, demand for refined copper is estimated to have risen 1% till April from a year ago, according to the International Copper Study Group. This was made up by China’s demand growing by 3%, with ex-China usage declining 1.5%. With the market showing a slight surplus, any slowdown in China could worsen the demand-supply balance.

These fears are what have led to a 29% decline in zinc prices in 2018 so far and by 10% in aluminium prices. Aluminium is a special case where the US sanctions on United Company Rusal Plc saw prices zoom on fears of a supply crunch and then fall back.

Domestic metal companies are likely to feel the heat from the decline in metal prices. However, producers will benefit from the depreciation of the rupee against the dollar. But their imports will become expensive, so those importing coal or other raw materials may pay more.

Read more via Metals feel the heat of Turkey crisis, US-China trade war – Livemint

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